Rising Global Temperatures: Fate of Earth and Humanity

 

It has been very hot these few months since March till now in August in 2024 throughout the world. The changed climate has already unleashed disastrous consequences around the world in 2024.

More than 1,000 people died in fierce heat during the hajj pilgrimage last month. Heat deaths were recorded in New Delhi, which endured an unprecedentedly long heatwave.

Since April 2024, several Southeast Asian countries have experienced record-breaking temperatures which have left several people dead. Heat indices peaked at 53 °C (127 °F) in Iba in the Philippines on 28 April 2024. The heat wave has been attributed to a combination of causes, including climate change and El Niño.

Large parts of northern and central India were in the grip of extreme heatwave conditions on Tuesday with the mercury crossing 50 degrees Celsius in many places. Delhi's Mungeshpur on Wednesday recorded 52.3 degrees Celsius, highest-ever maximum temperature recorded in India, breaking the previous record of 51 degrees recorded in Phalodi in Rajasthan about eight years ago. In 2016, during the month of May, Phalodi in Rajasthan, recorded a temperature of 51 degrees Celsius, the highest-ever recorded.

Shanghai saw its hottest day in May this year for more than 100 years with temperatures hitting 36.1 degrees Celsius (97 degrees Fahrenheit), continuing a brutal trend of unusually hot weather in the country since March.

In some countries, the high heat has caused excessive energy demand. Drought conditions have worsened across the region. In Indonesia, dengue infections increased. In Myanmar, the heat wave exacerbated the humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing civil war. Many government agencies have declared local emergencies and advised safety measures to protect residents from the heat, and some countries have closed schools or shortened their hours.

Ten hottest places on Earth this year in 2024 are:

1.      Turbat (Pakistan): 53.7°C (128.7°F) 

2.      Basra (Iraq): 53.9°C (129°F) 

3.      Mitribah (Kuwait): 53.9°C (129°F) 

4.      Tirat Tsvi (Israel): 54°C (129°F) 

5.      Ahvaz (Iran): 54°C (129.2°F) Kebili (Tunisia): 55°C (131°F) 

6.      Furnace Creek, Death Valley (USA): 56.7°C (134°F)

Let us now have a look at the current scenario, what causes these changes and what would be the future of this Earth if temperature keeps rising.

First, let us look at some of the causes of climate change. Most of us may have already heard of the greenhouse effect due to gas emissions. There are at least four gases we emit that cause a greenhouse effect.

Number one on this list is carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. The burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) for energy and transportation is the largest source of CO2 emissions. Deforestation also contributes significantly, as trees absorb CO2 during photosynthesis.

Number two is methane (CH4) released from agriculture (especially livestock digestion), landfills, and the production and transport of coal, oil, and natural gas.

The third gas is nitrous oxide (N2O) emitted from agricultural and industrial activities, including the use of fertilizers, and the burning of organic matter.

The fourth gas to blame is synthetic fluorinated gases used in industry, such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), which have a much greater warming potential than CO2.

Deforestation due to increasing human population adds on to this problem with gas emission. Forests act as carbon sinks, absorbing more CO2 than they emit. When they are cleared, the stored carbon is released back into the atmosphere, exacerbating the greenhouse effect. Add on to these are industrial activities that release various pollutants, including CO2 and methane, into the atmosphere. The cement industry, in particular, is a major contributor to CO2 emissions.

Increasing human population and agricultural practices for food production requires intensive farming practices. This again contributes to methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The use of nitrogen-based fertilizers is a significant source of N2O.

We also blame urbanization. The growth of urban areas leads to increased energy consumption, transportation needs, and waste generation, all contributing to greenhouse gas emissions.

Next consequence of climate change is due to ocean acidification. Increased CO2 levels are causing the oceans to become more acidic, impacting marine life and ecosystems. While this is more of a consequence than a cause, it is part of the broader climate change issue.

Let us next look at the consequences of climate change.

First there is a rise in temperature causing global warming. The average global temperatures have risen by approximately 1.2°C (2.2°F) since pre-industrial times. This warming leads to more frequent and severe heat waves.

As a result of global warming there is polar ice melt. The warming is causing polar ice caps and glaciers to melt, contributing to rising sea levels. Melting ice and thermal expansion of seawater due to higher temperatures are leading to rising sea levels, which threaten coastal cities and small island nations.

There will be extreme weather events such as storms and hurricanes in several countries like in the United States, China and in India that I saw over television news an hour ago to cause me to write this essay.  Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of storms, hurricanes, and typhoons in other parts of the world too.

Climate change also results in droughts and floods like in China, India due to altered precipitation patterns leading to more severe and prolonged droughts in some regions and increased flooding in others. Deadly floods engulf parts of South Asia this year in 2024 as extreme weather devastates vulnerable regions. In Afghanistan on July 15, 2024, Afghan residents shovel mud following flash floods after heavy rainfall at Pesgaran village in Dara district, Panjshir province

Not just droughts and floods, there will also be ecosystem disruption causing biodiversity loss.  Many species are unable to adapt quickly enough to the changing climate, leading to extinction or migration to new areas.

Warmer ocean temperatures are causing coral reefs to bleach and die, which has devastating effects on marine biodiversity. Rising global temperatures have an impact on human health caused by heat-related illnesses.  More frequent heat waves increase the risk of heatstroke and dehydration, especially among vulnerable populations.

There will also be an increase in vector-borne diseases.  Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns are expanding the habitats of disease-carrying insects like mosquitoes, leading to a rise in diseases such as malaria and dengue fever.

Food and water security will be threatened.  Climate change threatens agricultural productivity and disrupts water supplies, leading to food shortages and increased competition for water resources.

Rising global temperature has also economic and social impacts. Rising sea levels and extreme weather events are displacing millions of people, leading to climate refugees and increased strain on urban areas. Then there will be economic losses from damage to infrastructure, reduced agricultural yields, and the cost of adapting to climate impacts are leading to significant economic losses globally. This may lead to social unrest.  The strain on resources and livelihoods can lead to increased conflict and social instability.

 

The Fate of Earth and Life:

 

 

What about earth's longevity and life on earth's future? Current projections according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current rates, global temperatures could rise by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as early as 2030. A rise of 2°C or more would result in catastrophic impacts on ecosystems and human societies.

 Scientists warn of tipping points, such as the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet or the thawing of permafrost, which could lead to irreversible changes and accelerate climate change.

The long-term outlook for survival of life may be bleak if the trend of temperature rise persists. Life on Earth is remarkably resilient, and some forms of life may persist even under extreme conditions. However, the survival of human civilization and many current ecosystems is at risk if climate change continues unabated. There are planetary limits in the sense that Earth will eventually face other existential risks, such as the eventual cooling of the Sun, but these are on much longer timescales (billions of years). The immediate concern is the survival of human societies and ecosystems within the next century.

Having explained some of these consequences, let's look at the potential for mitigation. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to renewable energy, and implementing strategies for adaptation and resilience can help mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Technological solutions through advances in technology, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and geoengineering, could play a role in stabilizing the climate, though they come with significant challenges and risks.

We can also look at ethical and philosophical considerations. First, from a philosophical perspective, the concept of stewardship of the Earth emphasizes the responsibility of current generations to protect and preserve the Earth for future generations.

Second, consider the role of humanity. Humanity's ability to influence the climate has led to the idea of the Anthropocene, a proposed geological epoch marked by human impact on the Earth's systems.

 

Slow Cook:

 

There is a widespread anecdote that describes a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. We use this analogy to explain our inability or unwillingness to react to significant changes that occur gradually.

 We are being slowly cooked without us realizing this. Each individual will be born and passed on without realizing this as each life is far too short to grasp this. But not for humanity over generations. We will continue with our social and economic activities here as usual without realizing we are slowly being cooked like a frog, initially with cold or lukewarm water. We shall do nothing about this but continue with life as if is normal.  

Our lifespan is very short here on Earth, at most 100 years compared to very gradual changes such as rising global temperatures that may take several generations or centuries to come. As such we do not realize we are slowly being boiled into extinction.

Our lifespan is very short here on Earth, at most 100 years compared to very gradual changes such as rising global temperatures that may take several generations or centuries to come. As such we do not realize we are slowly being boiled into extinction.

I think the future of Earth and life on it is deeply intertwined with human actions. While the planet itself will continue to exist for billions of years, the current trajectory of climate change poses a significant threat to the biosphere and human societies within the coming centuries. The window of opportunity for meaningful action is narrow, but with collective global efforts, it is possible to avert the worst outcomes and ensure a more sustainable future.

Thank you for reading.

Ju-boo lim

References:

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports: These comprehensive assessments are among the most authoritative sources on climate change. The latest report is the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), which includes detailed information on the science of climate change, its impacts, and potential mitigation strategies. You can access the reports here.

2        NASA Climate Change and Global Warming: NASA’s climate change portal provides a wealth of information, including data on global temperature trends, carbon dioxide levels, and sea level rise. It also includes educational resources and visualizations. Visit their site here.

3        National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Information: NOAA offers a wide range of resources on climate monitoring, impacts, and adaptation strategies. They provide detailed reports and data that are highly relevant to understanding climate change. Check out their information here.

4        United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): The UNFCCC site includes information on international climate agreements, including the Paris Agreement, and ongoing efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. You can explore more here.

5        "The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming" by David Wallace-Wells: This book provides a compelling and accessible narrative on the potential impacts of climate change. Wallace-Wells offers a vivid portrayal of possible future scenarios if significant action is not taken.

6        "This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate" by Naomi Klein: Klein’s book explores the intersection of climate change, economic systems, and social justice, arguing for a fundamental rethinking of how society approaches environmental issues.

7        Scientific Journals: For more technical and peer-reviewed studies, journals like Nature Climate Change, Climate Dynamics, and The Journal of Climate are excellent resources. Many articles are available through academic databases like JSTOR or Google Scholar.

These resources should help my gentle readers delve deeper into the topics we discussed.

 

 

1