Thank you for the question.
First of all I am unable to see any "the plot above shows that timing was everything. The risks were unknown at the time" as stated in the text given.
Where is the plot? What plot? I could not find any graph, data or any info which was mentioned in the text. I suppose the plot was about the intensity of coronal mass ejections (CMEs)?
Anyway in its absence, I just give my personal opinion on this issue about the effects of CME on the Apollo astronauts if they "narrowly avoided serious health problems and even death due to exposure to radiation from the Sun"
First of all I do not think there has been any study on the effects of CME on human health if humans including astronauts were sent outside the Earth's atmosphere or its magnetosphere to be exposed to CME for long periods of time.
The CME has been there for billions of years even before any human or life appeared on Earth. Yet none of the life form existing for millions of years on Earth has shown any ill effects.
Even after all life forms including humans appeared, they were already protected (if not directly exposed by solar winds and charged particles from the Sun) especially during the 12 year solar activity cycle when CME are more likely.
Yet during these 12 years periodic solar flares cycles when CME are more likely, all life forms are protected by the Earth's magnetic fields and the atmosphere that deflect these charged particles from CME.
But I think CME and intense solar flares affect radio communications and electronic equipment and cause the appearances of Aurora Australis in the south and the Aurora Borealis in the north, up in the higher altitudes of atmosphere far more seriously than their effects on the human body at ground or sea levels.
However, we have very little idea what happen if astronauts were to be exposed unprotected for a considerable period of time, say for a few months to charged particles from CME?
In any case the Apollo astronauts Armstrong and Aldrin took 3 days to reach the Moon, and spent only about 21 hours on the Moon. But they seemed unharmed even though they were outside the Earth’s protective atmosphere as well as outside the Earth’s magnetic field which would have protected them even though it may be during the quiescent period between the 12 year cycle of solar activities
Then let us also consider those astronauts who stay up for months in the International Space Station (ISS) in low Earth orbit. Did they suffer from the ill effects of CME?
I am unsure, but I do not think so. If they did, this would have been reported, and we would probably have read about it.
As to the question if there was a known risk, would they have gone on that moon mission? This is very difficult question to answer. It all depends on the individual whether or not they want to take a known risk for the sake of Science. Some would, others may be hesitant.
Maybe, both Armstrong and Aldrin were already informed about this, and their decision was an informed choice. I do not know. But my feeling is, it is highly unethical to forcefully send someone to the Moon without discussing the pros and cons of an unknown risk with him or her. It has to be an informed choice. We are putting a human at risk otherwise.
Whether or not space exploration is worth the risk can be hotly debated. I cannot give an answer for sure. We would need a lengthy forum on this question
Thank you once again for this forum question
jb lim
Student
University of Oxford
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