Caution
The calculation given here is based purely on mathematical theoretical situation where order matter. But in real biological situation when a virus mutates, the mutation is randomized
The formula for permutations (nPr) is used when the order matters. However, when considering potential mutations, order does not typically matter because mutations are random. Hence, a different set of equations is used under a different article entitled:
"Theoretical Mathematical Calculations vs. Randomized Biological Variations" which I shall write later separately
Over this lazy afternoon today I was wondering
if scientists have all along got their directions wrong by producing all sort
of vaccines, without considering the various ways the sequence of the RNA of SARS-CoV-2 could arrange themselves
to give rise to various mutagenic strains and variants which may render all
existing vaccines to be useless.
For instance the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has now been found to offer limited
protection against the mutant South Africa variant of Covid-19 virus
based on about 2,000 young people who had the vaccine,
I was looking at the various permutations and
combinations their sequence could arrange themselves into various sub-sets of
genomes and their capability of mutating in appalling ways and numbers we fail
to even dream.
I like to share my thoughts on this dilemma
mathematically rather than biologically other scientists have been focusing on
all this while.
We know the nucleotides that
comprise the RNA of the virus contain a nitrogenous base,
a deoxyribose sugar, and a phosphate group which covalently link with other
nucleotides to form phosphodiester bonds.
Nucleotides are the monomers that make up
a nucleic acid, such as DNA or RNA. Nucleic acids are
made of long strands of nucleotides
A nucleic acid sequence is a
succession of bases signified by a series of a set of five different letters
that indicate the order of nucleotides forming alleles
within a DNA
In short its nucleotides may have just three
groups, but their individual group arrangements into nucleic acids through
combination and permutation can run into millions of billions of codes.
The corona viruses of Covid-19 have single-stranded,
positive-sense genomes that are the largest of all known RNA viruses. Its
nucleotide chain is between 27 – 32 kilo base (Masters, 2006).
The genome of this Covid-19
is about is about 30,000 characters long. In short it has a 5 digit code, all
are capable of rearranging the sequence to cause them to mutate into
unthinkable numbers
Epidemiologists estimated the genomic mutation
rate of SARS-CoV-2 viruses at 33 per year. Scientists use the presence of these
mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes to assign a lineage or clade to each strain.
But I think initially its mutation rate can be
extremely slow, but this may be a deadly misjudgment and a lethal mistake we
are going to pay pricey if we intend to challenge this virus with a fight using
all sorts of vaccines.
As far as I can foresee, we are not fighting
with a virus, but we are raging a war against an Intelligent Designer who has
put this virus here on this planet with an intended purpose.
The Combination and Permutations of Mutations:
The number of permutations possible for the SARS-CoV-2 to change the order of their
sequence, assuming just a small fraction of 30 nucleotides were taken from its
genetic code (the sequence
of nucleotides in the ribonucleic acid (RNA) that determines
the amino acid sequence of the spike proteins) would
be, assuming r = 10 of them were taken at a time
This would be:
n P r = n! / (n – r)! = 30! / (30 –
10)! = 1 x 1014 = 100 trillion
However I do not think this would normally be the case, because
as far as we know from our knowledge on genetics, cellular and molecular
biology, mutation is normally randomly-assigned without considering the order
of the arrangement of their sequence.
The sequence during mutation most likely is randomized rather
than chosen in a specific order. In other words, mutation is normally a random
change in its sequence
We would then have to look at this problem in another way if the
sequence of their nucleotides is randomly arranged without any concern of
order.
Put this in another way, we would have to look at how the
sequence are combined which is more likely rather than permuted in a fixed
arrangement.
Such randomly-assigned combinations would give rise to far more
numbers of mutations, and subsequent strains and variants rather than through
more through prescribed permutations
Mathematically we will then apply a different equation for this
biological threat to mankind given as:
nCr = n! / (n – r)! . r!
= 30! / 20! x 10! = 4 x 10 20 = 4 followed
by 20 zeros or 400 quintillion
(1 quintillion = 1 followed by 18 zeros)
(30!, 20! or 10! are all factorials. For instance 10! or 10 factorial is equal to 10x 9x 8x 7x 6x 5x 4x 3x 2x 1x = 3628800).
(We assume conservatively when we took only 30
nucleotides of this SARS-Covid 2 genome which may more likely to be the genetic
code, or just 0.1 % of the genome, and were rearranged with 10 codes taken at a
time)
If we assume this is more likely the possibility,
then there is no vaccine we need to look for any further or any
other preventive measure we need to enforce additionally against the capability
of this virus to mutate randomly to a tune a 100 quintillion different variants
400 Quintillion Types of Vaccines vs. A 400 Quintillions
Mutagenic Variants?
If this virus uses just 0.1 % of sequence to rearrange
themselves to a 400 quintillion different mutagenic combinations would
scientists also wish to fight and match them with a 400
quintillion various types of vaccines?
Of course in practice it is not possible for this or any virus to mutate until such an astronomical number of times. If it could, it would probably have mutated into some thing else entirely different from being a virus, especially if it could capture RNA or even DNA from the host cells or from the environment
See how life is being evolved on Earth like various music being composed by the varying the arrangements of their musical notes.
See under the paragraph "The Music of Life" in this link below:
https://scientificlogic.blogspot.com/search?q=RNA+Explained
But let us assume it does not change into another form of life no matter how many quintillion times it mutated, although once again, it would not
Assuming theoretically it does, and remains to be a virus. Let's see how do we intend to challenge it with vaccines?
It is projected there will be 8.5 thousand million people on this planet by the year 2030 which is another 9 years time in the Year of the Dog (A dog’s life by then).
This means if this virus mutates to its theoretical limit,
though it may not be likely through the Grace of God, then each individual on
this planet in about 10 years time will need to receive at least 4.7 x 1010,
that’s 47,000,000,000 different types of vaccines to cope with the flood of
mutations this virus is capable of transforming itself by merely rearranging
0.1 % of its sequence
My personal feeling towards this predicament it is best we lay
down all our biological arms – vaccines, drugs and anything other thing we can
think of, and just ask for forgiveness from our Creator for trying to fight
with Him as it is already clearly written that a third of the population of the earth would be killed by four
angels and the army which they lead (Revelation 9:16-18).
This is an unyielding divine decree that must
come to pass periodically to cut down overpopulation according to the
prescribed laws of Natural Selection for the survival of the fittest and to get
rid of the old and infirmed, those with comorbidities, those who are
immunologically compromised or those genetically malformed as we can see from
the nature of the mortality from this pandemic
If we look at this again, it is not just the
horrendously huge numbers of mutant variants this virus is capable if we
attempt to challenge them with various types of vaccines, but
it is their sheers numbers too that can
rain down on this Earth
This we may also need to consider here:
https://scientificlogic.blogspot.com/2021/02/our-vaccines-against-alien-invaders.html
Readers may also go into other general articles by Ir. Lau TO
blog here:
https://taionn.blogspot.com/search?q=laU+TO
For other articles by this author (Lim Ju Boo) are found here:
https://taionn.blogspot.com/search?q=articles+by+Dr+Lim+
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