Wednesday, November 30, 2022

When Shall Covid-19 Pandemic End?

  •  I received this comment from a medical technologist in a WhatsApp chat, and I shall quote it unedited below:
  • “Fearmongering 
  •  
  • in a hypothetical scenario, where a group of two opposing people are thrashing the management of the pandemic. 
  •  
  • what would it be called where one with absolute confidence that … 
  •  
  • a. the virus evolves to be milder 
  • b.  cannot evolves into immune 
  •       escape 
  • c.  will not cause reinfections
  • d.  cannot evolve into being more 
  •       transmissible in the air 
  • e.  cannot evolve into newer 
  •      variants after Delta 
  • f.  the virus is running out of 
  •      evolutionary space  
  •  
  • if evolutionary biologists share
  • their expertise on the subject BUT 
  • the people just blatantly close their ears and shut their eyes … 
  • all because it is too scary, including the professional minimisers. 
  •  
  • we need to grow up and face up to science …”

  • End. 

  • ---------------------------------------------------
  •  
  • In response, this is my counter comment:
  •  
  • In the view of evolutionary biology, I partially agree with the above writer.
  •  
  • For instance, the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 as we have seen, has mutated and evolved into several strains and variants since the SARS outbreak  in 2002– 2004, and has infected over 8,000 people from 29 countries and territories, resulting in at least 774 deaths worldwide when it was first identified in Foshan, Guangdong, China, in November 2002.

  • It then went into evolutionary latency for 15 years before emerging as Covid-19 on December 31, 2019 as the beginning of the pandemic. It was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020. We have seen several prominent variants, including Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron emerging.
  •  
  • The original Omicron strain (BA.1) was first identified in Botswana and South Africa in late November 2021, and cases rapidly began to emerge and multiply into other countries. By December, Omicron began to spawn into subvariants. One of those was BA.5, which became the predominant virus strain in the U.S., only to be swapped in November 2022 by two new subvariants known as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. due to the very rapid mutagenicity of this virus probably also due to our widespread global use of various types of vaccines produced by various pharmaceutical companies to combat this coronavirus. During this period of COVID-19 outbreak, we in Malaysia, we have experienced three waves of variants
  •  
  • As of this writing (November 30, 2022, 10:50 GMT), there are 6,639,178 people who have died from the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in 228 countries and territories. The fatality rate is still rising and counting.

  • This rapid event is not surprising to me using mathematical models to predict its mutagenic capability into at least 400 quintillion (400,000,000,000,000,000,000) variables and sub variants by merely arranging and rearranging just a tiny fraction of its genomic RNA sequence when challenged by any vaccines

  • The mathematical explanation is here:

  • https://scientificlogic.blogspot.com/search?q=400+quintillion

  • However, by-and-by, due to a chain reaction of cross immunity or herd immunity, this specific virus will finally run short of further mutagenic ammunition and shall logarithmically drop their degrees of pathogenicity and infectivity due to our collective global immunological response even though it may remain latent for decades before resurfacing as an entirely different, probably far more aggressive virus, similar to the SARS into Covid-19 we have already experienced.
  •  
  • We predict this possibility by just observing the almost sudden evolution of various kinds of life during the Cambrian Explosion some 538.8 million years ago that rose into a major animal phyla appearance in the fossil till the divergence of our modern metazoan phyla. That event was accompanied by major diversification of other new viruses including this new classis of coronaviruses, an event showing most of them from simpler to more complex forms of life.  

  • In short, I see there may be no way we can ever overcome this pandemic with or without vaccines, made worse by multiple vaccines and revaccination using various types of vaccines giving opportunistic mutagenicity to override


  • I do not think these coronaviruses will ever go away as long as there are humans around willing to  host them here on this planet. No other estimated 10 million species of life forms,  or animals on earth have  been  affected by this  SARS-CoV-2 group of corona viruses - only human animals zoologically-speaking. We are really very unique.
  • These viruses are here to stay as long as there are human animals around to host them. So are all other diseases. It is we who invite diseases, not diseases inviting human animals .
  • The Covid-19 may merely lie latent in low profile for decades, centuries, or for another million years, and there is no guarantee, they, as well as  other  infectious diseases like tuberculosis, smallpox, measles, cholera, typhoid, Japanese encephalitis, leptospirosis will not make a far more aggressive come back, including malaria that is already permanently endemic throughout tropical countries, but may migrate to the temperate  and colder countries due to global warming, climate change, congestion encouraging mosquitoes to migrate there 
  • These communicable diseases may periodically resurface to bring us down especially with our relentless overpopulation 

  • This is my view in Darwinian medicine and evolutionary biology

  • Lim jb  


2 comments:

Julieta. said...

Does that mean we will have to live with Covid-19 forever?

I trust all you explained as a highly qualified elvolutionary biologist from Cambridge. Here in Argentina we still struggle our daily lives with Covid-19

Chidinma. ... said...

I suppose we cannot fight with Nature as you have always emphasized and remind us in your blog

Great articles you write here. They are full of ideas most of us never even think of

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