The Possibility of 400 Quintillion Strains and Variants of Covid-19 Virus

                        Caution

The calculation given here is based purely on mathematical theoretical situation where order matter. But in real biological situation when a virus mutates, the mutation is randomized  

The formula for permutations (nPr) is used when the order matters. However, when considering potential mutations, order does not typically matter because mutations are random.  Hence, a different set of equations is used under a different article entitled: 

"Theoretical Mathematical Calculations vs. Randomized Biological Variations" which I shall write later separately 

Over this lazy afternoon today I was wondering if scientists have all along got their directions wrong by producing all sort of vaccines, without considering the various ways the sequence of the RNA of SARS-CoV-2 could arrange themselves to give rise to various mutagenic strains and variants which may render all existing vaccines to be useless.

               

For instance the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has now been found to offer limited protection against  the mutant South Africa variant of Covid-19 virus based on about 2,000 young people who had the vaccine,

 

I was looking at the various permutations and combinations their sequence could arrange themselves into various sub-sets of genomes and their capability of mutating in appalling ways and numbers we fail to even dream.  

 

I like to share my thoughts on this dilemma mathematically rather than biologically other scientists have been focusing on all this while.  

 

We know the nucleotides that comprise the RNA of the virus contain a nitrogenous base, a deoxyribose sugar, and a phosphate group which covalently link with other nucleotides to form phosphodiester bonds.

 

Nucleotides are the monomers that make up a nucleic acid, such as DNA or RNA. Nucleic acids are made of long strands of nucleotides 

 

A nucleic acid sequence is a succession of bases signified by a series of a set of five different letters that indicate the order of nucleotides forming alleles within a DNA

 

In short its nucleotides may have just three groups, but their individual group arrangements into nucleic acids through combination and permutation can run into millions of billions of codes.

  

The corona viruses of Covid-19 have single-stranded, positive-sense genomes that are the largest of all known RNA viruses. Its nucleotide chain is between 27 – 32 kilo base (Masters, 2006).

 

The genome of this Covid-19 is about is about 30,000 characters long. In short it has a 5 digit code, all are capable of rearranging the sequence to cause them to mutate into unthinkable numbers

 

Epidemiologists estimated the genomic mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 viruses at 33 per year. Scientists use the presence of these mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes to assign a lineage or clade to each strain.

 

But I think initially its mutation rate can be extremely slow, but this may be a deadly misjudgment and a lethal mistake we are going to pay pricey if we intend to challenge this virus with a fight using all sorts of vaccines.

 

As far as I can foresee, we are not fighting with a virus, but we are raging a war against an Intelligent Designer who has put this virus here on this planet with an intended purpose.  

 

The Combination and Permutations of Mutations:

 

The number of permutations possible for the  SARS-CoV-2 to change the order of their sequence, assuming just a small fraction of 30 nucleotides were taken from its genetic code (the sequence of nucleotides in the ribonucleic acid (RNA) that determines the amino acid sequence of the spike proteins)  would be, assuming r = 10 of them were taken at a time

 

This would be:

 

ⁿ P _r = n! / (n – r)! = 30! / (30 – 10)! = 1 x 10¹⁴   = 100 trillion

 

However I do not think this would normally be the case, because as far as we know from our knowledge on genetics, cellular and molecular biology, mutation is normally randomly-assigned without considering the order of the arrangement of their sequence.

 

The sequence during mutation most likely is randomized rather than chosen in a specific order. In other words, mutation is normally a random change in its sequence

 

We would then have to look at this problem in another way if the sequence of their nucleotides is randomly arranged without any concern of order.

 

Put this in another way, we would have to look at how the sequence are combined which is more likely rather than permuted in a fixed arrangement.

 

Such randomly-assigned combinations would give rise to far more numbers of mutations, and subsequent strains and variants rather than through more through prescribed permutations

 

Mathematically we will then apply a different equation for this biological threat to mankind given as:

 

ⁿC_r  = n! / (n – r)! . r!

 

= 30! / 20! x 10! = 4 x 10 ²⁰ = 4 followed by 20 zeros or 400 quintillion

(1 quintillion = 1 followed by 18 zeros) 

(30!, 20! or 10! are all factorials. For instance 10! or 10 factorial is equal to 10x 9x 8x 7x 6x 5x 4x 3x 2x 1x = 3628800).

 

(We assume conservatively when we took only 30 nucleotides of this SARS-Covid 2 genome which may more likely to be the genetic code, or just 0.1 % of the genome, and were rearranged with 10 codes taken at a time) 

                   

If we assume this is more likely the  possibility, then there is no vaccine we need to look for any further  or any other preventive measure we need to enforce additionally against the capability of this virus to mutate randomly to a tune a 100 quintillion different variants

 

400 Quintillion Types of Vaccines vs. A 400 Quintillions

Mutagenic Variants?

 

If this virus uses just 0.1 % of sequence to rearrange themselves to a 400 quintillion different mutagenic combinations would scientists also wish to fight and match them with a 400 quintillion various types of vaccines?  

 Of course in practice it is not possible for this or any virus to mutate until such an astronomical number of times. If it could, it would probably have mutated into some thing else entirely different from being a virus, especially if it could capture RNA or even DNA from the host cells or from the environment

See how life is being evolved on Earth like various music being composed by the varying the arrangements of their musical notes. 

See under the paragraph "The Music of Life" in this link below: 

https://scientificlogic.blogspot.com/search?q=RNA+Explained

But let us assume it does not change into another form of life no matter how many quintillion times it mutated, although once again, it would not 

Assuming theoretically it does, and remains to be a virus.  Let's see how do we intend to challenge it with vaccines?

It is projected there will be 8.5 thousand million people on this planet by the year 2030 which is another 9 years time in the Year of the Dog (A dog’s life by then).

 

This means if this virus mutates to its theoretical limit, though it may not be likely through the Grace of God, then each individual on this planet in about 10 years time will need to receive at least 4.7 x 10¹⁰, that’s 47,000,000,000 different types of vaccines to cope with the flood of mutations this virus is capable of transforming itself by merely rearranging 0.1 % of its sequence

 

My personal feeling towards this predicament it is best we lay down all our biological arms – vaccines, drugs and anything other thing we can think of, and just ask for forgiveness from our Creator for trying to fight with Him as it is already clearly written that a third of the population of the earth would be killed by four angels and the army which they lead (Revelation 9:16-18).

 

This is an unyielding divine decree that must come to pass periodically to cut down overpopulation according to the prescribed laws of Natural Selection for the survival of the fittest and to get rid of the old and infirmed, those with comorbidities, those who are immunologically compromised or those genetically malformed as we can see from the nature of the mortality from this pandemic

 

If we look at this again, it is not just the horrendously huge numbers of mutant variants this virus is capable if we attempt to challenge them with various types of vaccines, but

 it is their sheers numbers too that can rain down on this Earth

This we may also need to consider here:

 

https://scientificlogic.blogspot.com/2021/02/our-vaccines-against-alien-invaders.html

 

Readers may also go into other general articles by Ir. Lau TO blog here:

https://taionn.blogspot.com/search?q=laU+TO

 

For other articles by this author (Lim Ju Boo) are found here:

https://taionn.blogspot.com/search?q=articles+by+Dr+Lim+

                           

 

 

 

Our Vaccines Against Alien Invaders

 

Multitude of Alien Invaders on Earth

 

I am angry, very angry indeed with so many deaths being reported world-wide using these vaccines against Covid-19 invaders,  and the numbers of their mutations increasing exponentially

 

Let us do some calculations since mathematics is the Queen of Science.

 

The size of this SARS-CoV-2 virus I have researched from difference sources this morning is between 0.1- 0.5 μm (micro meter).

(One μm or one micrometer is = 1×10⁻⁶ metre or 0.000001 metre)

This means the average size of the Covid-19 virus is between 10^-7  to 5 x 10^-7 meters

The radius of Earth is 6.371 million metres

Hence the surface area of Earth (A) = 4 πr²

                       

= 5.1x 10¹⁴ square metres (510 trillion m²)

 

I suspect by now this virus has already covered the entire surface of this Earth by at least one layer, but more layers to come if they continue to multiply rapidly as we can clearly see the very sharp rise from the initial mortality followed by multiple mutagenic infections all over the world

This Covid-19 pandemic as with the previous SARS regional epidemic may have been peppered down relentlessly on Earth from outer space from where they may have originated as pre-life bio-molecules.

The heavens our Intelligent Designer created is horrendously immense huge stretching from one end its tethers to the other end a mind-boggling distance of  48 thousand million light years across, containing anything and everything far, far beyond our wildest dreams. 

See my previous writeup in this blog on the grains of sands as worlds in the Universe here:

https://scientificlogic.blogspot.com/searsandsch?q=grains+of+

But we, the scientists in particular, have  been vainly searching for the origin of this virus inside a water well, including the origin of  all other viruses because  they were  all living inside a water well looking at the water around them while dirt, rubbish and dusts are being thrown down into their well without them  realizing them.

For the scientists and politicians too, looking at this pandemic and all the lockdown they created is like calling all the expert virologists,  immunologists, molecular biologists, and vaccine experts as well as all other biological expertise  as car mechanics to come together to look and examine one of  the car's engines caught in the jam that may have caused the problem, instead of looking holistically skywards by flying high above like a keen, sharp-eye eagle what exactly, and where the bottleneck was  that actually caused all those traffic jam.

In another way of  telling  this story is like calling all these scientists, virologists, immunologists, molecular biologists, vaccine producers inclusive the best of scientific  minds as well as all the politicians to come together like  those 4 blind men describing an elephant as the popular tale we read when we were children 

I have this thinking from my training and understanding on astrobiology, a branch of astronomy I studied at the University of Oxford in 2019 the same month uncannily this Covid-19 invasion started.

   

Even if these viruses cover the Earth by just a single layer, the amount of them would be to a staggering tune of between1.02 x 10²¹ to 5.1 x 10²¹

 

 

That’s a mind-blogging army of alien invaders between 1 to 5 sextillions or 1 to 5 thousand trillions.

 

(Earth surface area / surface area of this virus is equal to the number of viruses, assuming the linear size of this virus is about the same as its surface area without being too hair-splitting in mathematics)

 

 

Question ourselves now dear scientists and vaccines believers, how would we be dealing with these staggering  numbers of invaders with our multiple variations of even  polyvalent vaccines that have already caused so many deaths being reported daily and are still rising steeply.

 

 

I use mathematics and statistic to infer, but scientists and vaccine developers use their polyvalent vaccines of all mutagenic modifications in their vain battle against God Himself who rained down this plague to reduce our human population periodically by a third to stabilize over population as part of His Intelligent Designer’s program.

 

 

We label this phenomenon in Evolution as a natural “bottleneck genetic drifts” to ensure the best of a genetically-selected population survive.

 

 

 

This will get rid of the old and infirmed and those immunologically-compromised or those with already co-morbidities.

 

 

This is part of a biological law on Natural Selection as explained by Naturalist Charles Darwin from Cambridge

 

 

The rain of plagues, the sweeping of famines, the rages of wars and the pestilence of diseases to reduce human population by a third has already been written in Revelation 9:15, KJV with or without vaccines, with or without other preventive measures we care to despoil and defile His plan. This shall come to pass.  

 

 

Ask yourselves now who is going to win this war of the worlds, Nature or us the human race, unless God Himself withdraws His Sword upon us  

 

 

I think we need to humbly say sorry to Him and lay down our arms and all our controversial vaccines that have caused us so many harms and daily deaths world-wide as reported, and I am confidant He shall surely have mercy upon all of us

 

Amen.

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

The Elixir for Eternal Life

 

 

Elixir of Eternal Life

 

I was just about to write a small thought about the importance of nourishing our souls rather than for our physical and temporal body when uncannily this video on Bernando food secret to longevity came through to me from a pharmacist friend of mine by the name of Gary Onn through our WhatsApp group

 

 

https://youtu.be/0Hi8Ue3tA-Q

 

 

Many thanks to you Gary

 

 

Bernando looks far, far younger than being 111 years old. He looks probably just about 80 years old

            

Perhaps just before you sent me this video on Bernanda via WhatsApp I may have been spiritually-guided to pen a thought I had only one or two minutes earlier

 

As a nutritionist-cum doctor and former medical researcher, I think we are all taking the wrong path seeking physical longevity and optimal health through the best nutrition approach  

 

We do not deny nutrition is the mainstay, besides lifestyles, in keeping our body towards a disease-free prolonged existence, but having taken this long journey all my life researching into food and nutrition for the maintenance of optimal health and disease-free longevity and permanence, I have this second thought if we have all along been taking the wrong path?

 

 

An Elixir of Optimal Health:

 

 

Food and nutrition for optimal health is probably the most popular subject being discussed globally compared to all other disciplines of health, medicine, and medical sciences.

 

 

Nutrition is widely and popularly discussed and published in weekly women and health magazines. Its popularity and health benefits are constantly being propagated over radio and television especially some going overboard on health products.

 

 

Information and popularity how certain foods may be good for the prevention and even their curative properties are often published in newspapers and in print media, or through WhatsApp like in this or in other videos.  

                                            

 

It is also a very popular subject for forum discussion, often the key subject in health talks as well as in countless papers presented at scientific conferences.

 

We have attended countless scientific conferences on this issue and have  presented numerous talks as well as  research papers during our 25 years professional career as a medical researcher.

 

 

An avalanche   of research papers on nutrition have being churned out  with a research expenditure estimated to the tune of US $ 100 billion yearly which place nutrition research one step ahead of cancer research, and yet we know little how food affects health and diseases especially with hundreds of thousands of phytochemicals and other unknown principals in foods yet to be analyzed and studied.  In order to understand all of them would be almost beyond our lifetime ability

 

First Knowledge God Gave to Adam:

 

In fact among all the discipline of knowledge, the first knowledge the Lord God taught to Adam after He created him was on food and nutrition. It wasn’t about from which tree   Adam could eat for longevity, but it was from which tree of knowledge  would have caused  him death.

 

This implies to me they may have been many trees from where their fruits could have given Adam eternal life? It appears to me all the fruits nutritionists may have studied and researched into may have come from that particular tree – the tree of knowledge on food and nutrition translated as food which is good for temporal health and foods that are bad and evil for health and death?  We shall discuss this in a little more detail later 

 

But all these scientific knowledge on food and nutrition are less important to me now. What I am more interested today is on all those trees that could provide us eternal life. This question perhaps would be the most attractive nutrition mystery we need to know, and I suspect all our current information on fruits, food and trees from which our life depends may have been limited to that tree of existing knowledge  

 

 

Now that I have taken this long, long journey researching how food may massively affect our health and the diseases we suffer years on, I am currently thinking on the spiritual foods for our souls that shall be eternal

                                    

                                    

Maximum Human Life Span:

 

 

We are now more than convinced no matter what food we chose wisely or unwisely, they shall only benefit our physical body short-term, at maximum 120 years.

 

What benefit then could food confers to our physical body if it is just for a few short years as clearly and truthfully stated:

 

“the days of our lives are seventy years; And if by reason of strength they are eighty years, Yet their boast is only labor and sorrow; For it is soon cut off, and we fly away” (Psalm 90:10).

 

This is a dilemma on death none of us can escape if we depend on optimal nutrition for our strength

 

 

This brings me to the next thought if there is a food or a fruit, even if a spiritual one when consumed would give us a life that shall never end?

 

 

That to me would crucially be the most important food on nutritional sciences our soul needs to seek.

 

 

It would no longer be the common foods plucked from the tree, even plant-based ones from the soil from where we first came.

 

 

None of them would be from various trees food and nutrition scientists have desperately been searching all their lives.

 

 

Let us now see what God has to say about food from the very beginning of mankind when he created and spoke to Adam 

 

Uncannily, I thought of these two verses given in Genesis

 

 

 

The Magical Potion:

 

 

“And the Lord God commanded the man, saying, Of every tree of the garden thou mayest freely eat: But of the tree of the knowledge of good and evil, thou shalt not eat of it: for in the day that thou eatest thereof thou shalt surely die” (Genesis 2:16 -17. KJV)

 

 

This instantly speaks to me the inundation of scientific knowledge on the foods we have been in the hunt all our lives in search of longevity, yet all must come to a naught no matter what provisions we chose to research and search all our lives to a tune of US $ 1 billion a year.

 

 

Why did God then told this to Adam? Why did God give Adam the scientific knowledge good and bad nutrition described as the tree of knowledge of good, and the tree of knowledge of evil?

 

As far as I am concerned, I translate it as our research knowledge on good and bad (evil) foods.

 

 

God already knew and taught Adam which fruits from which trees shall be for eternal life, and which tree of knowledge of good and evil nutrition we currently seek shall ultimately land us all to  the grave.    

 

This brings me to another guided thought that, as food scientists, nutritionists and clinicians should we start spending our money, time and effort researching on spiritual foods when consumed shall give us eternal life instead of wasting all our professional efforts and time seeking for the best meat or plant-based foods when consumed shall one day still return us into the soil.

 

But which is the best spiritual food we need to consume for our souls that shall never perish?

 

This is an exceedingly complex research question that would have caused scientists far, far beyond a US $ 100 billion yearly budget in research. This is also be a nutrition vision I am now mulling?  

 

Please allow me time to be guided by God to answer this elixir for eternal life

 

 

It would be the most spectacularly Nobel Prize winning Nutritional Science or in Medicine ever stupendously achieved.  

 

 

I am currently unable to open the answer as I have only received this video on Bernando food secret to his (physical) longevity 45 minutes ago before I could pen my personal thoughts here

 

 

Perhaps Bernando would have preferred my thoughts for an eternal existence rather than a 111 year subsistence.

 

 

Give me time to be guided 

 

 

jb lim  

 

 

 

 

List of articles in Ir. Lau TO blog

 https://taionn.blogspot.com/ 

 For the list of other articles here: 

 https://taionn.blogspot.com/search?q=list+of+dr+lim+articles

Herd Immunity vs. Vaccination Explained in a Simple Way

Herd or Shared Immunity Explained in A Very Simple Way 

The Scenario: 

 Let A, B,C, D … represent 4 individuals in a population 

None of them were initially infected by Covid-19 virus 

Imagine A first gets infected Person A if he survives then produces an antibody against the virus. 

 Let us call this antibody or immunoglobulin as Ig. Ig. now gets tagged on to the virus to weaken it. 

 Let's now imagine the weakened virus carrying the tagged Ig. now escapes into the air to infect person B Person B recognizes it as a human Ig. tagged along with a strange virus 

Person B then adds on his own Ig. to trim down the virus further The virus now gets a double dose of Ig. 

The virus then escapes again into the air and infects person C.

Person C also recognizes this new virus and downgrades it further with the same or more appropriate antibodies if the virus has mutated This is a triple dose of the same or different types of antibodies against the already doubly weakened virus 

Person C then infects the 4th person D 

Chain Reaction: 

Person D recognizes the same, and shares its immunoglobulin alongside those already contributed by persons A,B and C, and if necessary, by modifying its Ig. further if the virus tries to fight back by mutating into multiple strains. 

 This chain of natural immunological barricades goes all the way down to infect persons EFGHIJK… causing multiple infections, each person infecting several people at the same time. 

This causes a multiple chain reactions of to rise exponentially until the entire population of the world may be affected, but it will respond appropriately by matching their continuously changing natural “vaccines” to match up the virus ongoing mutations trying to “survive” (exists). 

It becomes a tit-for-tat biological scenario for the survival of the fittest as prescribed by Natural Selection in Evolution As the virus begins to deteriorate after been challenged by our combined and multiple immunological defenses, the number of new infections gets less and less and the rate of recovery from infected people begins to rise very swiftly until all the current 7.9 billion world’s population recovers completely It will be an exponential rise in infections, and yet an even faster accelerated rate of recovery we can expect We call this as herd, shared / cooperative /combined or communal immunity, or whatever name we wish to give it. 

This is the natural law of survival for the human species which is part of Darwin evolutionary medicine or Darwinian medicine towards our better understanding of health and disease Unfortunately, a third of the world’s population need to be sacrificed first for the remaining to survive. 

We may label this as a “bottleneck genetic drift” if we like for the better survival of the remaining population. This was also similarly seen in all ancient and past pandemics before any pandemic curve flattened as decreed in Revelation 9:18. Ironically, currently one-third of the world's population was told to observe mandatory lockdowns involving 2.6 billion worldwide in 42 countries or territories to contain the coronavirus. 

 Natural vs. Artificially-induced Vaccination: 

 Absolutely no artificially-designed vaccine of any kind, not even mixtures of variant types can outperform our body’s natural vaccine that defends itself continuously as a living body that works like a flowing river. The most beautiful thing about herd immunity versus vaccination contradictory to what politicians and vaccines producers think, or pretend they do not know is, vaccines against Covid-19 or any infection takes many, many years to develop and undergo safety trials, and vaccination has to be done one-by-one, from person-to-person with limited supply of vaccine and personnel across huge populations of hundreds of millions to billions of people, compared to the speed of exponential chain. reactions of herd immunity spread across the same population yet to be exposed.

Herd Immunity via Vaccination: 

 Of course we can also acquire herd immunity artificially via vaccination but is it safe as the reliability, efficacy and safety is hotly debated both by the scientific and medical community as well as by the lay public.

My feeling is, there is nothing like having mass immunity acquired naturally through natural selection although it may be only slightly slower initially till multiple cross infections becomes established 

Furthermore, a mono standard vaccine or polyvalent vaccines produced from several mutated strains can never catch up with the speed the living body that responds naturally to meet changes in the mutating scenarios by the virus In short a vaccine is fixed and 'dead' once out of the factory, but a living body is not dead or fixed but is constantly adjusting and changing to meet changing environments and new challenges 

 That's the beauty how we are fearfully and wonderfully made; marvelous are Thy works, and that my soul knoweth right well (Psalm 139:14) 

 This is natural vaccination or natural medicine. I personally prefer to coin it. I am optimistic this pandemic would decelerate very fast as more and more are exposed by sharing our immunological defenses collectively. 

 This is how Nature works, ordained by decree and prescribed by natural selection for our survival on Earth. 

I trust this simple, down-to-earth explanation helps instead of trying to understand those complicated issues and controversies about the efficacy and safety of several types of artificially-designed vaccines that have been causing a lot of distress to people and global uproar, as well as agreement and disagreement  disagreement and stress among doctors and scientists till time of this writing