Beyond the Last Drop: Oil, Civilization, and the Future of Human Survival

Thank you very much, Othman Nasir for explaining your difficulty in getting petrol for your car in 3 petrol stations to go to Malacca, and for your valuable and interesting comment under this article I wrote about the humble bicycle.

https://scientificlogic.blogspot.com/2026/04/when-wells-run-dry-energy-and-motion.html

  

Let me explain what is the daily global oil consumption compared to those in Malaysia, and what is our future going to be like with a few facts and figures about our oil usage, not just to move about, but also our need for substances that depended on petrochemicals.

Modern civilization is built upon oil. It moves our cars, powers our aircraft, drives global trade, supports agriculture, and quietly forms the chemical backbone of countless products we use every day—from plastics and pharmaceuticals to paints, fertilizers, and medical equipment. While many discussions about energy focus only on petrol and diesel, the true importance of fossil fuels extends far beyond transportation. Oil is not merely fuel; it is one of the structural foundations of modern human life.

Today, the world consumes approximately 100 million barrels of oil per day, equivalent to about 15.9 to 16.2 billion litres daily. Of this, the transportation sector alone accounts for more than 60%, consuming nearly 9.8 billion litres each day. Passenger cars remain the single largest consumer, followed by commercial trucks, aviation, buses, and two- and three-wheelers.

Malaysia, though small compared to global figures, reflects the same dependency. The country consumes approximately 934,000 barrels of oil per day, or roughly 148 million litres daily. Transport fuel, mainly petrol and diesel; dominates this demand.

Passenger cars form the largest share of Malaysia’s transport fuel usage. Nearly all private cars run on petrol, accounting for roughly 45% of national transport fuel demand. Commercial trucks, lorries, and goods vehicles consume a major share of diesel, representing approximately 31.8% of transport energy demand. Buses, despite making up a relatively small portion of total vehicles, consume disproportionately high amounts of diesel due to heavy engines and continuous operation. Aviation also contributes significantly, with jet fuel consumption estimated at more than four million litres daily.

Globally, electrification has already begun reducing oil demand, removing roughly one million barrels per day from consumption. However, electricity alone does not solve the deeper problem. 

Let me dig deeper into the facts and figures on global oil consumption compared to those in Malaysia.

 Once again, the world consumes approximately 16.17 billion litres of oil daily, with the transportation sector alone accounting for roughly 9.86 billion litres (more than 60%). In comparison,  Malaysia’s total daily oil consumption is about 148.55 million litres (934.38 thousand barrels/day), of which transport-related fuel, primarily petrol and diesel, dominates. 

 The following estimates reflect the breakdown of transport fuel consumption based on global and local data. 

Daily Fuel Consumption Comparison (in Million Litres):

Category  World Daily (Est.) Malaysia Daily (Est.) Primary Fuel Type Passenger Cars ~3,863.3 ~66.8 Petrol (Gasoline) Commercial Trucks/Lorries ~2,575.5 ~33.8 Diesel Air Transport ~1,232.5 ~4.4 Jet Fuel (ATF) Buses / Collective ~215.3 ~33.8^ Diesel / Natural Gas 2 & 3 Wheelers ~318.0 ~28.6 

Petrol global bus figures are often grouped with heavy-duty vehicles; this is a derived estimate based on energy shares. 

In Malaysia, "Buses" and "Goods Vehicles" are significant diesel consumers, with buses having a notably high share of total fuel demand relative to their vehicle count.  

1. Breakdown by Transport Mode Passenger Cars - Global: 

Passenger cars are the single largest oil consumers in transport, using roughly 3.86 billion litres daily (24.3 million barrels/day). 

In Malaysia, nearly 99.6% of passenger cars run on petrol. They account for approximately 45% of the country's total transport fuel demand. Trucks, lorries, and goods vehicles on a global scale consume about 2.58 billion litres daily. They primarily use diesel, which is preferred for its higher efficiency in heavy-duty engines. 

In Malaysia goods vehicles and lorries account for a combined 31.8% of the transport fuel demand. Most of these vehicles run on diesel, though efforts are increasing to use B10/B20 biodiesel blends. 

Buses and Collective Transport on a Global Scale: 

This sector accounts for roughly 5% or less of road transport energy in many regions. In Malaysia buses make up a small portion of the vehicle population (9%), but they contribute a disproportionately high 22.8% of total transport fuel demand due to high mileage and heavy diesel engines. 

Air Transport Globally: Aviation accounts for about 12.5% of total transport energy consumption, using roughly 1.23 billion litres of jet fuel daily.

In Malaysia, jet fuel consumption is approximately 4.43 million litres (27.85 thousand barrels) per day. 

Other fuels and natural gas is used by about 0.3% of cars and a tiny fraction of buses in Malaysia. Electricity is currently a negligible share of total transport energy in Malaysia but growing. Globally, electrification has already reduced oil demand by about 159 million litres (1 million barrels) daily.  

Let us think what will happen when the last drop of oil is used up? Would this lead to fatal political, social and economic repercussion, or what other effects? 

 The scenario of using up the "last drop of oil" is highly unlikely to happen as a sudden event. In reality, as oil becomes more difficult and expensive to extract, the global economy will gradually shift toward alternative energy sources long before the physical supply hits zero. However, if the world fails to transition smoothly the repercussions could be severe across several sectors:  

1. Economic Impacts Production Costs: Nearly every manufactured good, from plastics to pharmaceuticals, relies on petrochemicals. A total loss of oil would cause production costs for these items to skyrocket. 

Inflation & Recession: Unstable oil prices traditionally trigger global inflation. A complete depletion without a replacement would lead to a "global economic cardiac arrest". 

Supply Chain Collapse: 

Modern globalization is built on cheap, long-distance freight. Without oil-based fuels for ships and planes, supply chains would shrink, forcing production to move much closer to consumption.    

2. Social & Food Security Risks Agricultural Crisis: 

Industrial farming depends on oil for machinery, irrigation, and the production of fertilizers and pesticides. Depletion could lead to massive food shortages and price hikes, particularly in vulnerable regions. 

Human Health: Beyond transport, oil is essential for sterile medical plastics and the transportation of temperature-sensitive vaccines and medicines.

 3. Political & Geopolitical Repercussions Failed States: 

Countries heavily dependent on oil exports (petrostates) for their national budgets could face total fiscal collapse, leading to rising unemployment, loss of public services, and political instability. 

4. Resource Wars: 

Intense competition over the final remaining reserves could spark new geopolitical conflicts or exacerbate existing ones in regions like the Middle East. 

Shift in Global Power: 

Power would likely shift from oil-rich nations to those controlling the technology and raw materials (like lithium and rare earth minerals) needed for renewable energy.  

5. Other Significant Effects Peak Globalization:

 The end of the "oil age" would likely mark the end of globalization as we know it, favoring localized economies and more efficient, electrified transport like high-speed rail. 

6. Environmental Silver Lining: 

While the transition would be painful, a permanent end to oil use would drastically reduce carbon emissions and pollution, potentially slowing the pace of climate change.  Current projections suggest global oil demand may peak by 2030 as electric vehicle adoption and renewable energy investments (currently $2 trillion annually) continue to grow. The "last drop" is less of a literal deadline and more of an economic threshold that will be crossed when alternatives simply become cheaper and more reliable than drilling for what remains.

What about other sources of energy? 

Many people assume that solar power, hydroelectric dams, geothermal energy, tidal systems, and wind farms can simply replace oil.

I shall try to write an article later on the energy we can get from wind. I shall try as I need to search for information and data from various sources, besides complex calculations needed from raw data - but I shall try.  These technologies indeed provide clean energy, but they do not provide petrochemicals. They generate electricity and heat, but they do not supply the carbon atoms required to manufacture plastics, synthetic fibers, medicines, solvents, paints, detergents, packaging materials, and thousands of industrial compounds essential to modern life.

This is the often-overlooked challenge,  even if we replace fuel, how do we replace carbon?

Fossil fuels provide ancient carbon stored underground over millions of years. If we stop using them, humanity must find new sources of carbon for manufacturing. The solution lies in shifting from an extractive model; - digging old carbon from the earth to a circular model that uses living carbon or captured carbon already present in the environment.

One major approach is biomass-to-chemicals. Instead of crude oil, plants can serve as “biological oil” because they naturally pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Corn, sugarcane, starch, agricultural waste, and wood residues can be processed into bio-plastics, solvents, and industrial chemicals. Lactic acid can be used to produce PLA plastics, while bio-ethylene can produce bio-polyethylene that is chemically identical to petroleum-based plastic.

Modern biorefineries increasingly avoid food competition by using non-food biomass such as corn husks, rice husks, wood chips, municipal food waste, and palm oil residues rather than edible crops.

A second major solution is Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU). Instead of treating carbon dioxide as waste, industries are learning to treat it as a valuable raw material. CO₂ captured from factory chimneys, or even directly from the atmosphere through Direct Air Capture (DAC), can be combined with green hydrogen produced by renewable-powered electrolysis. This allows the production of synthetic methanol, synthetic fuels, plastic feedstocks, and even construction materials such as carbon-cured concrete.

A third frontier is synthetic biology. Scientists are reprogramming microorganisms such as yeast and E. coli to act as microscopic chemical factories. These microbes can be engineered to consume sugars or even carbon dioxide and produce high-value products such as synthetic silk, fragrances, industrial chemicals like bio-BDO, and pharmaceutical compounds. Biology is increasingly being treated like software: organisms are “programmed” to manufacture molecules.

This creates a profound transformation. Traditional petrochemicals rely on underground fossil carbon and linear production—extract, use, pollute. Sustainable alternatives rely on atmospheric or biological carbon and circular production; capture, use, recycle.

Yet these solutions create another challenge: land, space, and scale.

As the human population grows, demand for food, materials, and energy rises simultaneously. If we replace oil with plant-based feedstocks alone, vast areas of land would be required, potentially competing with food production and natural ecosystems. This raises a deeper ecological and philosophical question, namely;  is humanity expanding beyond the carrying capacity of the planet? Could our own success become the cause of our downfall?

Some like myself often ask whether the eventual decline of humanity might allow simpler and “meeker” species to reclaim the earth.

Science suggests the answer is more complex. Humanity is not merely consuming horizontally across our human needs; it is increasingly moving toward vertical and microscopic solutions.

Instead of expanding farmland, industries are turning toward waste-to-materials systems. Food waste, agricultural leftovers, and industrial biomass are being converted into valuable chemicals. Direct Air Capture allows carbon to be pulled from the atmosphere using minimal land. Precision fermentation grows microbial factories inside industrial tanks rather than across vast farms.

At the same time, the concept of the circular economy offers perhaps the greatest hope. Today, less than 10% of global plastics are effectively recycled. If materials are continually reused rather than discarded, the need for “virgin” carbon, whether from oil or crops, can be drastically reduced. Chemical recycling can break old plastics back into molecular feedstocks, theoretically saving billions of barrels of oil annually.

The question of whether mankind will be replaced must also be viewed through ecology. Humans have accelerated extinction rates far beyond natural background levels. However, the removal of humans would not simply leave an empty throne for other animals to inherit.  Ecosystems are deeply interconnected. The sudden collapse of a dominant species often causes co-extinction across the network.

Moreover, we now live in the Anthropocene—the Age of Humans. Our climate, oceans, atmosphere, and chemistry have been permanently altered. Any species inheriting the earth after humanity would inherit a changed planet, not the original one.

Unlike other species, however, humans possess a unique ability: intentional adaptation. We can foresee danger, change behaviour, redesign technology, and alter systems before reaching irreversible tipping points.

This is where the technological frontier becomes important.

Many experts believe the future lies not in biological collapse but in a digital-biological convergence. Artificial intelligence, blockchain systems, and advanced biotechnology may allow every molecule of waste to be tracked, reused, and prevented from entering landfills. Entire industries are already shifting toward “land-free” manufacturing.

In fashion, companies such as Bolt Threads produce synthetic spider silk using yeast fermentation rather than silkworms. Mycelium leather grown from mushroom roots replaces animal leather using a fraction of the land and water.

In fragrances and specialty chemicals, companies like Givaudan and Amyris use engineered microbes to “brew” perfumes, sweeteners, and industrial chemicals without plantations or petroleum refining.

In food production, "Eat Just" has pioneered cultivated meat, while "Perfect Day" produces dairy proteins without cows. This could reduce land use for meat production by over 90%.

Construction industries are experimenting with bio-cement, where microorganisms “grow” building materials rather than using carbon-intensive kilns. Even electronics researchers are exploring biodegradable bio-polymers using bacterial cellulose and DNA-based materials.

What about in Malaysia?

Malaysia is also participating actively in this transformation.

Rather than remaining only a crude palm oil producer, Malaysia is increasingly shifting toward becoming a circular bio-economy hub. Under the National Biomass Action Plan and research led by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), over 160 million tonnes of palm-based biomass—including empty fruit bunches, fronds, shells, and palm oil mill effluent, are being redirected from waste into wealth.

These materials are being converted into second-generation biofuels, bioethanol, biochemicals, eco-friendly packaging, furniture composites, animal feed, and renewable biogas. Palm-based transformer insulating oil is being explored by Tenaga Nasional Berhad as a replacement for mineral oils. Malaysia already contributes significantly to global oleochemical production, supplying plant-based alternatives for soaps, detergents, lubricants, and industrial chemicals.

Mandatory sustainability standards such as MSPO 2.0 and investment incentives from MIDA are pushing the industry toward higher-value, lower-carbon biorefineries rather than simple commodity production.

So what happens when the “last drop of oil” is used - the question I gave to the title of this article. 

In truth, the world will probably never experience a dramatic final drop. Long before physical depletion occurs, oil will become too expensive, too difficult, or too politically risky to remain dominant. The transition will be economic rather than geological.

But if humanity fails to prepare, the consequences could be severe: inflation, food insecurity, medical shortages, supply chain collapse, geopolitical conflict, and the destabilization of entire nations dependent on fossil fuel revenues.

Yet within this crisis lies opportunity.

The end of the oil age may also mark the beginning of a wiser civilization—one that no longer depends on extracting ancient carbon from the earth, but instead learns to live within a renewable, circular, and biologically intelligent system.

Perhaps the true question is not whether oil will run out, but whether human wisdom will arrive before it does - and I am unsure? 

That may determine not only the future of civilization, but the future of humanity itself.

This is my reply to Mr Othman Nasir’s comment unable to get petrol for his car to go to Malacca,  and I would like to dedicate this article to him.

 

 lim ju boo - lin ru wu (林 如 武)

 

 

References

 

1. International Energy Agency (IEA) – Global oil demand and transport energy reports

2. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) – World petroleum consumption data

3. Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) – Palm biomass and bioeconomy reports

4. Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDA) – Biomass and circular economy investment incentives

5.  United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) – Circular economy and plastic recycling studies

6. World Bank – Energy transition and petrostate economic risks

7. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – Climate transition and fossil fuel phase-out reports