Ever since
humans started an agrarian society some 12,000 years ago, there were only about
less than 2,500 inhabitants on this Earth. As humans began to spread out across
the world, his population began a slow increase in arithmetical progression
until just after the industrial revolution in 1840 it went up to over a
billion. Today in 2022 it is 7.9 billion – almost 8000,000,000. This is
almost an exponential rise. It shall reach soon, and we shall use 8 billion for
easier calculation.
But first,
let's have a look at how much space Earth has to accommodate an increasing
number of humans teeming on its surface. In order to do this, we need to look
at how much land is suitable for living. Next, we need to know how much
cross-sectional area a human body occupies, measured at its broadest around his
upper body – around both his arms across the body.
We also need
to know the total surface area of his dwelling place, the size of his average
house, and let's say also the car he has shared by 4 members of his family.
These are just examples of how much space each person occupies along with his
properties to help us visualize.
In real
situations this varies significantly, and we shall explain that later.
Let's begin
with some simple calculation
Total Surface of
Earth:
Total surface
area of Earth is about 509 600 000 square km (197 000 000 square miles). The
oceans and seas occupy 71 % of the surface area leaving 29 %
or 147,784,000 sq. km (57,100,000 sq. miles) as land.
1 square km =
0.386102 square mile)
Out of
this, 33% are deserts and about 24% are
mountains. Total unavailable land is, 84,236880 square km. This leaves us
only 147784000 - 84,236880 = 63547120 square km. suitable for
living.
How Much Space
Does A Human Body Occupy?
The
circumference (C) of upper body around both arms is 45 inch = 1.143 meters
In order to
find the largest area of body occupied by the body, we need to find the radius
(R) first by changing the oval (egg-shaped) measurement of the upper body
around our arms into a circle, and apply the formula:
C = 2 pi r
R = C/ 2pi
= 0.182 metre
Once the
radius is known, the area (A) occupied by the body is = pi x r^2
= 0.104 sq.
metre
(1 inch =
0.0254 metre)
(1,000,000
square metre = 1 sq. km)
(I foot =
0.3048 metre)
(1 square km =
0.386102 square mile)
Flood of
Humans and Their Properties:
The world
population is currently approaching 8 billion (8,000 million) people.
This means 832 million sq. metres (832 sq. km) or 0.0013 % of habitable space
has been occupied by humans squatting here, let alone all their “fantastic”
bricks, cement, concrete, and steel structures parked here and there
An average
house is 80 ' x 20 ' (149 square metres), and an average car has a length and
width of 14.7 feet and 5.8 feet (7.9 sq. metre).
Normally, some
houses are very crowded with 8 or 10 people staying, others just a single
person, while others have no house to stay except in the streets. So, it is
difficult to figure out what would be the density of people in each house? But
let us average out 4 people staying in a house – father and mother with
two children out to be 2000 million (2 billion) houses occupying 298,000 sq. km
of space for houses, and 15800 sq. km for cars = 313800 sq. km, let alone
other concrete structures like shops, shopping malls, office blocks, roads,
bridges and other infrastructures. Houses and cars alone would have occupied
313800 / 63547120 x 100 = 0.5 % of land
space suitable for living.
More
Realistic:
Of course,
what we are discussing here is a hypothetical scenario just for academic
interest. In reality, there are so many unpredictable variables as we do not
have the actual data that can only be obtained by demography and population
studies. Variables such as, not all will stay in a single house with his family
of two children. Many families may have over ten or more people – father,
mother, children, grandchildren, grandparents, uncles and aunties, nieces and
nephews all crowded together under the same roof as nucleated families. Some
wealthy individuals may selfishly have 10 or more houses and a fleet of 20 to
30 cars for each person in a family. Others may stay in apartments, flats and
condominiums that can hold a few hundred residents under the same roof, others
may be homeless, and many may have much larger houses with swimming pools,
large sprawling gardens, estates and orchards, huge farms than just an example
we give here of a standard size house of 149 square metre and an average car
7.9 square metre. Some houses are far apart from each other, others crowded in
rows and rows
Then we also
have many in poorer crowded countries like India where many have no car, and
even if they have, a car is for 4 in a family. Whatever we have we all take up
spaces, albeit a tiny bit individually, but significantly collectively.
Then again,
population increase, or decrease depends on numerous factors such as
affordability, educational levels, socio-economic factors, birth control
programmes...religious beliefs, cultural systems...etc.
Many are born
and die at various ages from numerous causes…accidents, disease, suicides,
sudden death, natural disasters, etc. All these affect population growths, it
is growing despite deaths with new generations replacing older
ones.
There is no
way with all these variables, can we use straightforward mathematical
calculations to derive data on how the population shall grow and how human
activities here and there scattered everywhere on the surface of earth are
going to take up space.
Just be aware
we are only giving examples. The only way we can tell is to do actual field
studies on anthropology, demography, human behaviour, migration patterns,
sociology and such a like. Then we need to consider birth and death rates in
various countries, some will have more, some less depending on the country such
as China, India, United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Nigeria,
Bangladesh, Russia, and Mexico having some of the highest numbers of people,
while places like Vatican City, Nauru, Tuvalu, Palau, San Marino,
Liechtenstein, Monaco, Saint Kitts and Nevis having the lowest.
Still, despite
these variables, we can predict what it will be like by just looking at the
nett result of all these human activities from data collected from actual
population studies where we can clearly see there is a rising trend in global
population such as here:
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/world-population-prospects-2022-summary-
results#:~:text=The%20world's%20population%20is%20projected,and%2010.4%20billion%20in%202100.
Or here:
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
Food and
Nutrition in Deficit:
Currently
FAO and other studies shows we are really short of food and nutrition, the only
ingredient we need to stay alive besides air and water:
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/fao-statistical-yearbook-2021-world-food-and-agriculture#:~:text=Not%20only%20that%2C%20but%20agriculture,9.4%20billion%20tonnes%20in%202019.
https://www.fao.org/sustainability/news/detail/en/c/1274219/#:~:text=Global%20trends,and%20pastures)%20for%20grazing%20livestock.
A study claims
that only about 38 percent of the land on Earth is used for food production.
The rest is either unsuitable for cultivation because of soil, climate
topography, or urban development, or its forest land.
https://www.sciencealert.com/not-enough-land-earth-support-diet-usda-recommends-guidelines-environment-ecosystem-health
Other studies
show land usage, crop production and natural resource use:
https://www.fao.org/3/y4252e/y4252e06.htm
Other Adverse
Effects:
Although food
security is our main priority, we also need to consider other ill-effects of
overpopulation such as over consumption of natural and non-renewable resources
such as oil and gas, other fossil fuels like coal all which are depleting
inversely to our population growth.
Although food
availability, its supply and food security is our main worry to feed an
increasing population growth rate, destruction of the environment and
ecosystem, let alone other ill-effects such as carbon dioxide emission,
greenhouse effects, climate change, shortage of clean water and pollution into
the environment. We can go on and on discussing all these issues into chapters
after chapters, and these are real issues we may not be able to control.
What we are
trying to drive home here is, it is not just an increase in human population,
but a far, far more increase in all those unnecessary concrete
non-biodegradable structures humans build here and there after he was born,
when food is the only requirement, he needs to remain in existence. The human
body does not occupy much space, but it is all those huge and massive concrete
structures he constructs and park them here and there. All these occupy a lot
of space meant essentially for growing food as our only crucial
requirement.
Our
socio-economic demands for food, clothes, employment, health care, transport
among other endless needs is going to be critically strained to breaking point
with uncontrolled rising human population. Yet all our human activities are
only limited on a “Pale Blue Dot” called Earth
lost among
some 300 sextillion (3 x 10 23) other worlds according to a
2010 estimate, but probably 10 26 (100 trillion, trillion
- 1 followed by 26 zeros) in my own estimate at a forum discussion in 2019. Yet
our existence here is so fleeting and transient like a vapour appearing only
for a short while before vanishing away.
Furthermore,
every human from birth till death buys and stores all kinds of unnecessary
things in life, using them only once or twice before hanging them up somewhere
in the house to collect dust or throwing them outside. In fact, 99.999 % of
everything we buy we use only once, twice or just three times before hanging
them up somewhere in the house or throwing them into the environment till we
die. All these unnecessary additions in life occupy space. Despite
our awareness on these issues, the world population continues to rise
alarmingly since the 1950’s The highest global population growth rates,
with increases of over 1.8% per year, occurred between 1955 and 1975
– peaking at 2.1% between 1965 and 1970. It went up from 1
billion in 1800 to 7.9 billion in 2020.
If this trend
continues, I think in order for us to be comfortable with each other in such a
crowded situation, is to have at least 30 metres of space shared between each
human. Even so, we need 225 square metres (2.25 x 10^ - 4 sq. km) for every
person on Earth spaced out evenly. This means there shall be:
63547120 square km / 2.25 x 10^ - 4 sq. km = 2.8 x 10^11 or 280 billion
people teeming here on the surface of this limited Earth just to move around 30
metres apart, shared between two persons without any more land to grow any
food? That’s just too bad and fatal for everyone without any food.
Thomas Malthus
Essay:
See this
article on Thomas Malthus Essay, food supply and overpopulation, famine,
plagues and pestilence, rise of humans, human growth like cancer cells, an
evolutionary threat… etc:
https://scientificlogic.blogspot.com/search?q=like+cancer+cells
Let us now
visualize under extreme conditions if the population growth continues to
explode unchecked from current data, at least a hypothetical scenario when a
day should come when humans would only have standing rooms, shoulder to
shoulder as the broadest area in a human body.
To answer
this, a minimum of 25 sampling measurements from a child to a full-grown adult
male with various sizes and body frames was taken, and the statistical mean
(not average) cross-sectional area of a human body was calculated out to be
0.104 sq. metre (1.04 x 10^ -7 square km). This was already mentioned above in
the beginning under "How Much Space Does A Human Body Occupy?".
Extreme
Population:
Suppose we
have a situation where every square cm of the habitable land is used up just to
stand shoulder-to-shoulder with each other at the expense of even land for
food needed to feed an explosive rise in population, then we will have:
63,547,120 square km of habitable standing room / 1.04 ^ -7 sq. km of a
human body = 6 x !0^ 14, or 600 trillion people standing side-by-side with no
space to move a single cm, let alone just to lie down.
Supply and
Demand: Population Stability:
Of
course, I don’t think we will ever reach that stage where we will not even have
standing room, let alone any room to bury the dead. Even the dead needs space
to be buried, unless they are cremated. The space needed by the dead is
slightly less than the living. Still, new burial grounds need to be found and
expanded after each one or two generations.
The population
growth may continue to rise infinitely till such a time when food supply, gas
and oil are running out and can no longer support any further growth. In such
an event the population may flatten off and stabilize where supply of food and
natural resources just meet. But even such a scenario may not last long when
all supplies of food, oil, gas, power and perhaps even clean water completely
run out. In such a situation the population will dip sharply till the entire
human civilization is wiped out.
This is a
natural phenomenon we observe in microbiology where initially when a bacterium
is inoculated in a nutrient culture plate just like when the first human was
implanted on this earth, nothing happens. There is a lag phrase where there was
no growth. Then after being incubated over a period of time, we see a sudden
exponential phrase of logarithmic growth. During this bacterial
growth phase, the number of new cells appearing is proportional to the
population as we saw since the time agriculture and food supply began 10,000
years ago till we see an exponential rise in the current human population at
nearly 8 billion.
We can expect this
trend to continue for a number of decades more, before the population plateau
off and stabilizes itself just like we observe bacterial growth in a confined
space of a culture plate like on the limited space on earth.
See this
article:
A Lesson in
Bacteriology and Cancer Biology under:
https://scientificlogic.blogspot.com/search?q=purpose+of+life
Then as food
supply is being depleted with consumption of essential items and pollution
increasing, this results in the accumulation of toxic wastes into the
environment. It shall be death to all the remaining human population. Life
would be extremely stressful and intolerable by then, and I believe many will
self-destruct themselves with suicides bringing the population further down.
This is what we also saw by observing the growth of bacteria cultured on a
Petri dish as much as we are introduced here by a Creator and observe what we
do here on Earth.
When Shall it
Be?
When shall that be, I am not sure as it also depends not just on depletion
of food and famine, gas, oil, power, water supply just mentioned above, but
also on wars, civil conflicts, and killing due to political, economic and
social disorders because of depletion of human needs, disease and pandemic and
other plagues and pestilence to cut us down like cancer cells creeping on the
surface of this Earth such as revealed to us about periodical famine, war,
plagues and pestilence to befall on Earth in this verse:
“And I looked,
and behold, a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed
with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to
kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the
earth”
(Revelation 6:8). Also here:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7598223/
To summarize,
we are the worst animals ever created on Earth. No other animal ever created do
the same thing as we do here on Earth – building concrete engineering
structures to park here and there, acquire properties everywhere, place our
material investments to occupy every square km of this limited Earth from the
way we breed, produce, consume, congest, destroy the environment, and use up
all the natural resources.
Scientists and
zoologists classify humans as animals. We belong to the Kingdom of Animalia as
a multicellular organisms with cells with a nucleus, with cell
membranes, in the Phylum as a Chordata, an animal with a spinal cord, in
the Class Mammalia, a warm-blooded chordates that bear live young; females have
mammary glands that secrete milk to nourish young in the Order as Primates, and
as a mammal with collar bone; eyes face forward; grasping hands with fingers;
two types of teeth (incisors and molars) in the Family – Hominidae, and as
Primates with upright posture, large brain, stereoscopic vision, flat face,
different use of hands and feet. In other words, we are not angels, gods or
spiritual beings, but just like all other animals with head, body and
limbs
But we are
entirely different from all other animals because none of the other animals
fight to destroy themselves and the environment unnecessarily, and yet they fly
and creep everywhere and are fed free of charge without needing to pay for food
or anything else. Only humans build non-biodegradable concrete structures
everywhere on land meant for agriculture and food production as our only
requirements. Birds use natural biodegradable twigs, leaves and small branches
to build their houses and nests, so do beavers use the same to build dams
across streams.
(Luke
12:27-40, Matthew 6:26-34)
We are truly
unique