Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Why is flu seasonal

 

There was a question posted by a Tan Sri Professor in our WhatsApp group.

 

He asked in our WhatsApp group this poser:  

 

“I am wondering why Prof Dr. Liong Min Tze in her video from Melbourne did not explain why flu is seasonal occurring mainly in the winter months?

 

How can the virus appear and disappear only in certain months of the year? How can this be due to mutation as Prof Dr Liong claimed?”




My Answer: 

 

Thank you for your doubts about mutated flu virus causing seasonal flu put forward by this Malaysian female scientist in her video I received.

 

We don’t expect her staying in Melbourne to know everything, such as why flu is seasonal especially during the cold winter months in December, before mentioning why mutating Covid-19 virus may also be ineffective? 

 

She is a virologist and virology is her specialty. Perhaps she is not familiar with other areas of biological and space sciences.

 

She was probably looking at mutation as the sole cause in the variations of infectivity and why flu vaccines may not be effective the next year.  

 

The same question has been raised by a friend of mine recently in the same chat group showing me a histogram on the varying efficacy of this vaccine over a 10 year period asking me for an explanation. I gave a statistical answer to him.

 

The same dilemma was also asked of me recently by two medical doctors’ colleagues of mine when we were formerly working at the Institute for Medical Research in Malaysia.  

 

This seasonal flu variations causing the flu vaccines ineffectiveness, or less effective year-to-year as this Professor from Melbourne said is already well-known to everybody, and I agree with her. There is nothing new about this.

 

That is why scientists need to create another type of flu vaccine each year. This is also well-established. Everyone knows this.

 

Mutation?

 

But why did the flu virus change and mutate only in winter or solely on certain months of the year?

 

No virologist as far as I know has ever been able to answer or explain this phenomenon till today because they all merely look and think about strain variations due to mutation. 

 

Such thinking is no different from anyone looking at a problem from the angle of a single specialty.  I think we need to find the answer holistically, or at least an alternative explanation.

 

The reason as why flu epidemic is seasonal and especially during the winter months is not known to everyone.

 

None so far, as far as I know is able to explain. All we can only think of is the virus underwent mutation in the interim.

 

But then how can a virus remain in such a non-infective state especially during the hot summer months and for so long in between winters, and then suddenly becomes active infecting large populations at fixed times of a year?

 

Let me offer another an alternative solution from other disciplines of biological sciences, especially in astrobiology (space biology), an area I am familiar with.

 

I am not saying mine is the right answer, but allows me first to offer my own thinking. This is also not solely my own, but I gather indirectly from the work of other scientists in other areas. I then merely put up a hypothesis  

 

Let me explain.

 

Ancient Thoughts 

On the Origin of Life:

 

In the ancient writings of the Greek philosopher Anaxagoras in the 5th-century BC, he and other great Greek thinkers already suspected that life could have originated from another world.

 

The Greeks came out with this hypothesis in what we now call the panspermia on the origin of life on Earth, including the flu and all viruses; maybe also on the origin of the corona virus now plaguing Earth. 

 

Over the centuries more, and more scientific thoughts on this theory emerged, beginning with Jons Jacob Berzelius in 1834, Hermann E. Richter in 1865, Kelvin in 1871, Hermann von Helmholtz in 1879 and finally achieving the level of a very detailed and sophisticated scientific theory through the labors of the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius in 1903.

 

Recent Thinking:

 

But the most impact on the panspermia theory came from Sir Fred Hoyle (1915–2001), a would have been a Nobel Prize astrophysicist if not for his antagonism against his colleagues at Cambridge, and Professor Chandra Wickramasinghe (1939 -     ), a British mathematician, astronomer, astrophysicist and an astrobiologist.

 

These two scientists were strong supporters and proponents of the panspermia theory.

 

Both of them were highly respected world-renowned astrophysicists and astrobiologists and mathematicians from the University of Cambridge who have also worked in other universities, and whose findings took the scientific world by storms  

 

In 1974 while working at Cambridge, they proposed the hypothesis that some dust in interstellar space was largely organic in composition in that they contain carbon-based molecules on which life as we know it is established.  Wickramasinghe was later proved to be right.

 

Hoyle and Wickramasinghe further contended that life forms persist to enter the Earth's atmosphere, and may be accountable for epidemic outbreaks, new diseases, and the genetic originality essential for macroevolution – an area I too am familiar.

 

They published several papers of their findings showing how flu epidemic normally begins during certain months of the year, and always starting from high altitudes first, before reaching the lower plains.

 

They attributed this to interstellar clouds laden with various types of flu viruses descending from space at high altitudes first before floating down very slowly against updrafts of winds at high altitudes prior to reaching the plains.

 

It took months to float down to the sea level. Thus flu epidemic always start from higher altitudes before spreading down to the plains.

 

The epidemiological pattern each year is always the same. This would have nothing to do with mutation of the flu virus, let alone mutating from the mountains first before reaching sea-levels months later. How does that works then?

 

Neither has it got to do with mutation of the virus only on certain months of the year which Prof Dr. Liong did not explain, except saying it was mutation that causes the vaccine to be ineffective, and in that sense she was right.  

 

But let me explain why she may be wrong in the other sense

 

 

Seasonal Position of Earth:

 

Each season of the year when Earth reaches exactly the same position in space as it revolves in her elliptical path  around the Sun she will be sprayed by this enormous interstellar clouds hovering over that region as she collides with them.  

 

As the Earth rear-ended into this cloud of interstellar dusts at that point in time and position of the year, she will be sprayed by these virus-laden dusts. 

 

These interstellar clouds may be carrying different types and strains of pre-life and bio-molecules which scientists may have mistaken as mutated strains on Earth

 

These different types or strains of the same pre-life bio-molecules  may have already been there between 5 - 10 thousand million years ago, and was brought here from the  Oort Cloud that surrounds  the Sun at distances ranging from 0.03 to 3.2 light-years or 2.84 x 10 11 to 3.03 x 10 13 km (2,000 to 200,000 astronomical units).

 

In short, their pre-life molecules may have been the same or different strains of viruses floating in space before Earth smashes into them as she takes her circuit around the Sun.

 

In such an event they then sow and shower the Earth with different strains of viruses which virologists may have mistaken as mutated strains of flu viruses each season when Earth reaches a certain point in space.

 

At a frigid temperature of just 3 Kelvin (3 degrees above absolute zero or minus 270 degrees Celsius) in outer space as shown by CBM (Cosmic Background Microwave) nothing can move, not even molecular movements, let alone viruses mutating.

 

These pre-life bio molecules (perhaps viruses) can remain in outer space “lifeless” in suspended animation for more than 5 billion years, frozen in a vacuum.

 

In such a scenario they can remain inactive without needing any living host and as such, it is not possible for them to mutate at that bitterly frigid temperatures when even molecular activities freeze almost to zero until they can float down to the much warmer atmosphere on Earth where they ‘sprout’ and multiply inside living human cells

 

Neither was this mutation the cause of seasonal infectivity as virologists believe. There is no human out there in the frigid of outer space challenging them seasonally with our human antibodies.  

 

Space Experiments:

 

There were three chains of astro-biological experiments been conducted outside the International Space Station between 2008 and 2015 where an extensive variety of microorganisms, and their spores were exposed to the solar flux and vacuum of space for about 18 months?

 

Some organisms survived in a motionless state for considerable lengths of time, and those samples sheltered by simulated meteorite material make available experimental evidence for the likelihood of the hypothetical scenario of the panspermia theory.

 

In November 2019, the same time when Covid-19 first emerged on Earth, scientists reported detecting for the first time, sugar molecules, including ribose, in meteorites that suggest chemical processes on asteroids can construct some fundamentally essential bio-ingredients imperative to life, and supporting the perception of an RNA world prior to a DNA-based origin of life on Earth, and probably the concept of panspermia as well. Was this an accidental coincidence when Covid-19 also surface?  

 

That is the only probable reason why flu, if not Covid-19 is seasonal when Earth smashes into these huge virus-laden interstellar clouds at that point in time and position of the year we call as seasons and hence the name seasonal flu which I believe may be the answer.

 

I am of a strong opinion that such a yearly event in outer space has absolutely nothing to do with flu virus appearing and disappearing on Earth due to mutation, and only at certain seasons of the year.

 

In order for a virus to mutate it must be constantly challenged by the immunological surveillance of a human host, and never only on specific time of the year. This is not the way our immune system is activated. This would not make sense. 

 

Thus, the theory of seasonal flu due to mutation believed by virologists is not viable at least to me.

 

There is a very strong probability that we are surrounded by life-laden molecules from Oort clouds circulating round the Sun and they do make seasonal visits to Earth peppering it with their life-forming molecules. This is like a farmer sowing seeds into the soil during post harvest 

 

 

A Sudden Thought:

 

On this note, this bring me to another dilemma, a sudden thought after I have just penned the above sentence as to why during  the  Cambrian Period which  was the geological period  that  lasted for 55.8 million years, there was a sudden explosion of all life forms known as the Cambrian Radiation?

 

It seems strange to me that all sorts of life-bearing interstellar dusts may have sowed all the diversity of life simultaneously on this planet as described in Genesis, rather than going through the very slow process of natural selection proposed by Charles Darwin.

 

Mutation is a very slow process and could not account for this Cambrian Explosion. It must have been an Intelligent Designer?    

 

Let me quote in summary what Stephen Hawking has to say here about life.

 

In an Origins Symposium presentation on April 7, 2009, the late cosmologist, mathematician and physicist Stephen Hawking from Cambridge declared his view about what humans may find when venturing into space, such as the likelihood of alien life through the theory of panspermia.

 

 He said: "Life could spread from planet to planet or from stellar system to stellar system, carried on meteors”

 

So could viruses too. These life-giving visits by various types of viruses or the so-called “mutated” viruses spreading periodically onto Earth may have been the cause of periodic epidemics and pestilence that I too believe and can envisage

 

I believe this would be the same variation of epidemic scenarios  even if we can find an effective vaccine for Covid-19. 

 

My personal feeling as scientists is, always think out of the box, and always look above the well, and never stay forever inside a well.

 

We need to specialize in multidiscipline of sciences also to consider and contemplate a theory

 

That is my answer Tan Sri Professor 

 

        

Lim jb


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